![]() We did an event with Deval Patrick recently and someone from his high school was in the audience to surprise him. South Carolina is going through an incredible influx of retirees and new faces moving in. Kropf: No, there is no average or typical South Carolina Democratic voter. It shows what can happen with an unlimited budget.Įven if he finishes behind Biden here by 10 points, it’s a huge bounce toward Super Tuesday.Ĭillizza: Is there an “average” or “typical” South Carolina Democratic primary voter? What does he or she look like? What are his or her politics? He’s doing more advertising and home mail outs than anyone. Steyer has made significant outreach to the black community, which will be better than 60% of the turnout in the primary. Biden, meanwhile, is way down the appearance list at 23. Who’s next among the current candidates? Steyer, with 38 events. Kropf: Cory Booker and Kamala Harris made the most stops in the state, but they are long gone. The big question that’s to be determined is, what will non-committed Democrats do in three weeks, make a pick on some policy choice or play ping-pong in their heads over who has the best chance in the fall of defeating Donald Trump?Ĭillizza: How much of a presence have the candidates had in South Carolina? Who has been in the state the most? Who is seen as having the best organization? Sanders, Warren and Steyer all got votes from the chairs so it means Democrats are looking around, which is not what the Biden people want. But we described it as more as a “shrug” of support than clapping enthusiasm. ![]() We did a survey of the 46 county party Democratic chairs and most all mentioned Biden’s name first as being the candidate at the top of their community’s interest. Kropf: Biden is ahead horse-race style, but I don’t know about comfortably. Sanders, Steyer, Warren, even Yang and Bloomberg have their followers now, which is like I said, the rarity in a Democratic primary as the electorate spreads out and sprinkles across the board.Įven if Buttigieg is hypothetically polling at 10%, that’s 35,000-plus voters in his camp in the state (assuming the turnout is above 2016’s 350,000).Ĭillizza: What is the current state of the race in South Carolina? Biden comfortably ahead? With 6-7 new fresh voices Democrats have to pick from, both men and women, that is what is really confounding the so-called Biden firewall collapse. The lack of choices was especially a factor in 2008, when Barack Obama smashed Hillary Clinton, and then four years ago when Clinton won in a walkaway, even to the point that Sanders left the state early before the primary.īut now Democrats have a dozen people on the ballot. None of these races since the 1990s have been competitive as the state went solid red, be it for governor or US Senate. If anything, the results could scare Biden folks into rallying for him if that becomes the message his campaign sends out forcefully.īut – and this is what I think has been overlooked the most so far – this is the FIRST RACE HERE OF ANY KIND IN DECADES in South Carolina where Democrats have ballot choices.įor the past 25 years, Democrats have been clobbered in every statewide race, whether the candidate has some credibility or is a complete inexperienced longshot. Joe Biden isn’t a Southerner, but he comes to South Carolina with deeper associations: Barack Obama, Jim Clyburn and Fritz Hollings. Same with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in New Hampshire. Pete Buttigieg is a Midwesterner, so of course he is going to do well in Iowa. Geographically, those two states are places far away from South Carolina, where the results are seen as “association” performances with where the candidates come from. It is a complete and total restart, or can be. Kropf: I don’t think what happened in Iowa or New Hampshire tonight matters a plate of potatoes in the South Carolina race in terms of siding with the winners. Our conversation, conducted via email and lightly edited for flow, is below.Ĭillizza: How much (or little) does what happened in Iowa (and will happen tonight in New Hampshire) impact South Carolina voters? How closely are they following it? I put that question – and a few more – to Schuyler Kropf, a top-notch political reporter at the Charleston Post & Courier. So, how strong is Biden’s South Carolina firewall, especially amid what looks likely to be two straight fourth-place or worse finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire? (He plans to go straight to South Carolina on Tuesday night from New Hampshire, his campaign announced Tuesday). THE POINT - NOW ON YOUTUBE! In each episode of his weekly YouTube show, Chris Cillizza will delve a little deeper into the surreal world of politics.
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